Luther James Jensen was born in and raised in Saint Paul, Minnesota, where he graduated in He entered the financial sector in New York, and worked for George E. Liggett and Associates until around Jensen then moved to Kansas, where he opened the Kansas City Bureau of Economic Research in which was his business for over 25 years.
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For the Roosevelt-administration he authored economic forecasts e. Major Trends in American Economics from to An Analysis and a Forecast , but also wrote on war and peace cycles, radio communication technology or migratory locusts The Locust Years After During the same period one of his major private clients became W. If we envision messages as food for thought, then cognitive frames deliver the vitamins. Most of the frames in use and this extends beyond politics are based on polarized pairs. We presently find ourselves straddling the threshold between "acts," as it were, between the Piscean and the Aquarian Ages.
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Like vast tectonic plates shifting deep within the collective unconscious, this epochal transition has already begun manifesting as a series of seismic changes throughout our world, as the forms of an older order make way for those of a radically new one. Aspects in astrology are particular arcs between the zodiacal positions of two planets.
A cycle of planetary relationship begins when a pair of planets occupy the same degree of the zodiac. This originating aspect is known as the conjunction. Its arc value is zero. The New Moon is the archetypal conjunction. In time, the faster moving planet rushes ahead of the other in the sky.
The arc measuring the cyclic distance between the two grows. Your name: Robot Spiderwoman Visiting Astro. Com Logout Shopping Cart. Current Planets. Were You Born on a Cosmic Convergence? Some Notes on Cycles in a Time of Crisis Comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko heliocentric. The circuit of birth, growth, culmination, retraction and completion for a new birth is reflected in cosmic patterns like the moon cycle, the course of the sun and the planets through the zodiac or the aspects between the planets.
From this meshwork of astrological cycles the individual time quality of a moment, a period or epoch sprouts. Cycles also play a significant role in other fields of science.
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For example, in the fields of philosophy and history cyclical theories of political evolution have been expounded by Plato, Aristotle, Cicero and Machiavelli and in the cyclical theories of cultural morphology presented by Giambattista Vico, Leo Frobenius, Oswald Spengler and Arnold Joseph Toynbee. In economic sciences there are market cycles, trade cycles, business cycles and the product life cycle.
It is logical to ask then if there is any correspondence between theses cycles and astrological constellations. Kondratiev searched for empirical patterns associated with this cycle.
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And he found a strong correlation with significant changes in social and economic life. At the beginning of each cycle new technological innovations arise and revolutionize the methods of production as well as the global market structure. These innovations find the first practical applications for the mass markets and hence accumulate enough capital to make investments into the new sector profitable. The new market starts to boom and soon becomes the new global lead market. The first known Kondratiev Wave was initiated by the steam engine and the mechanical loom. Based on these core technologies the Industrial Revolution started around and triggered a huge economic upswing.
By , this sector reached its maximum potential. Growth slowed down and finally led into decline and recession. During the downswing period of the first cycle, the basic technologies of the second cycle were invented. Kondratiev identifies the public steam railway , the turbine , Portland cement , the mechanical harvester , the telegraph , the rotary printing press and the sowing machine The increasing practical use of these innovations initiated the Second Kondratiev Wave around Mass transport and communication became the new growth drivers.
Railway and telegraph networks sprawled across the countries. For a quarter of a century the economy experienced a tremendous boom. In the s the Third Kondratiev Wave began with the rise of a new core technology: electricity.
Countless new products and industries became electrified. In combination with another new invention - the assembly line - it revolutionized production.follow site
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The era of modern mass production began. The third cycle brought on the transition to the modern consumer society. When Kondratiev published his findings in , he was convinced that this cycle would soon reach the limits of its growth and that an era of decline was soon to come. He was right. The reactions of the scientific community were controversial, especially since three repetitions of the wave were not considered sufficient to prove the existence of a Long Wave Cycle.
So what has happened in the past 70 years? In the early 21st century the Long Waves are still popular and frequently debated, particularly in the areas of innovation studies, trend research and futurology. Authors such as Leo Nefiodow, Carlota Perez or Christopher Freeman assume that there have been two other waves since the time of Kondratiev and Schumpeter. The chart above illustrates the typical contemporary assumption of the wave pattern:. According to this model the Fourth Kondratiev Wave started in the mid s with the emerging automotive and airline industries.
Over 30 years this market expanded massively. At the end almost every household in the industrialized countries had been motorized and air travel had become affordable for the masses. The climax and turning point of this cycle is marked by the oil crises of the s, which sent the economy in a downward trajectory again before finding a new core innovation for growth.
The Fifth Kondratiev Wave kicked off in the s with the emergence of information technology. Computers became a tool for everyone. The Internet and mobile phone industry sprawled into the zeitgeist and connected millions of people across the world. Consumer electronics started to dominate the global market. When the New Economy Bubble burst in , many Kondratiev followers proclaimed that the climax of this cycle had been reached and predicted a downswing for the future.
However, during this decline the core technologies for the forthcoming Sixth Kondratiev Wave would develop. To this day the Kondratiev model has remained popular. And it vividly explains the major growth drivers of the last years.
There are different opinions about details like the exact time when the cycles start or end or the exact names of the leitmotifs. But many researchers agree that there is something behind these cycles. Nevertheless there are some critical points, especially methodological ones. Thus, there is still controversy as to whether or not the wave pattern really shows up in empirical data. Statistics from different decades and countries are not directly comparable.
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